n recent years, prices have regularly peaked in April, slipped in the summer, and then recovered in the fall. (Let’s forget last year, which was a little unusual. There was no recovery in the fall—just one very long bottom and no recovery until winter—but you get the picture.)
Generally speaking, we’ve seen sheet prices rise in the summer only if there has been an external shock, such as the surprise imposition of Section 232 tariffs on Canada and Mexico in 2018 or the unexpected rebound in demand throughout 2021 following a pandemic-stricken 2020. We saw prices rise through the summer in both years.
Peak Tariffs in the Rearview Mirror?
You could make a case that the big external shocks of 2025 are already past us.
The first shock came in February from the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. That was under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and framed as necessary to combat trafficking of illegal drugs.
Another shock came in March from the reimposition of Section 232 tariffs of 25% on imported steel from U.S. allies who previously had been exempt from the duty.
We arguably hit peak tariff madness on April 2—aka Liberation Day–when President Donald Trump’s administration clobbered the entire world with tariffs. You could argue that’s when the tariff action hit the point where it could never be topped, leaving only room for retreat.
The panic buying we saw earlier in the year halted. Uncertainty took over, and buyers moved to the sidelines. Among the questions that gave them pause: Was removing Section 232 quotas really a good idea, and would 25% be enough to stop some of the lower-priced import options?
Tariffs Remain Unpopular Among Steel Buyers
Steel Market Update has meanwhile seen support for Trump's tariffs plunge among steel buyers. We’ve been asking people since March whether tariffs help their business, hurt their business, or whether they’re not sure.
About one-third of survey respondents have always been against Trump’s tariffs, and that hasn’t changed since March. What’s changed is that the roughly one-third of people who said tariffs helped their business has dropped into the single digits.
Meanwhile, survey participants report little evidence of reshoring. Short-term pain for long-term gain is a tough sell in a democracy. Just ask former President Joe Biden how that worked out when it came to infrastructure and other initiatives.
Pour lire l'article complet : Flat-rolled steel demand could be in for a slow summer
